Computer Simulation Lab
Name _______________

Grade = ? / 10
Each question is worth 1 point.

HUMAN SOCIETY AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
GLOBAL COLLAPSE  OR  SUSTAINABLE FUTURE ?

Scenario 2:   Doubled Resources - The number of estimated natural resources is doubled from the current "best" estimate.

NOTE: The first several questions are mostly answered for you, just fill in the blanks. We are looking for things like increase, decrease, rise rapidly, stay constant, give an approximate year, number of years,two or three times longer, etc. Eventually you will need to make your own intrepreations of the graphs in future questions.  
   
QUES. 1:  What if more resources are actually available than current estimates predict?  Compare Scenarios 1 and 2.  (Fill in the blanks below for answer) 

a. When comparing Scenarios 1 and 2, the resources (purple) last considerably longer, but the general behavior of the model is still overshoot and collapse, just delayed by 30-40 years. Additional resources allow industry (black) to grow _____ years longer in Scn 2 than Scn 1, which in turn causes pollution (red) to be ____ times higher and peak ____ years later. 

b. In Scn 2, population (green) rises to more than 9 billion in 2040, which in turn increases the pollution to _______ levels than in Scn 1. The greater pollution has a greater impact on the food supply (blue), causing it and population (green) to _____ more sharply than in Scn 1. The higher pollution reduces land yield and forces much greater investment in agriculture. Eventually declining food raises the death rate to decrease the population. 

EXPERIMENTS:  2.  Pollution Control:

Scenario 3:  Doubled Resources and Pollution Control Technology
Allocate capital to bring pollution to 1975 levels.  20 year lag time.


QUES. 2:  What is the effect of applying all pollution control technologies?  Compare Scenarios 2 and 3.  Fill in the blanks below. 

a. In this scenario, pollution continues to rise in spite of the abatement programs, because of the delays in implementation and continued growth in agricultural and industrial production. Scenario 3 has pollution control technology, pollution (red) stays ______ than in Scenario 2, but it does reduce land fertility after about 2015.   

b. In Scn 3, population (green) continues to grow to about the same level at 2050, but does not ____ as drastically. In Scn 3, food (blue) stays at ______ levels as in scenario 2.  

c. In Scn 3, total industrial output (black) peaks by 2035 at a _____ level than in scenario 2, because so much capital has been pulled into agricultural, resource, and pollution sectors.

EXPERIMENTS:  3.  Advanced Technologies:

Scenario 6:    Double Resources, Pollution Control Technologies, Land Yield and Erosion Control Technologies, and Resource Efficiency Technology.

QUES. 3:  What is the effect of applying all advanced technologies possible?  Fill in blanks below for the answer. 
Compare Scenarios 2 and 6.

a. In Scn 6, this combination of technologies permits the simulated world economy to go on growing smoothly until ______ years. 

b. In Scn 6, nonrenewable resources (purple) are depleted more ________ than in Scn 2; their cost remains low. Industrial output (black) peaks at _____ year and then begins to ______ more slowly. 

c. Food production (blue)_____ steadily, but pollution gets high enough to depress land fertility, but its effect can be overcome by additional agricultural inputs. 

d. Population (green) appears to become almost ______  by the year 2100. Eventually death rates rise to equal birth rates. Although right at the edge of the graph at 2100, more gradually but still inevitably, the world over shoots its limits. It cannot maintain living standards, population and food will begin to fall following the decrease in industrial output.  

EXPERIMENTS:  4.  Population Control:

Scenario 8:  Stabilize World Population at 2 children per family in 1995.

QUES. 4:  What happens if the population is controlled and no other things are changed?  Compare Scenario 2 and 8  (Fill in the blank below) 

     As a result the world population continues to grow moderately to 7.4 billion in 2040.

a. In Scn 8, surprisingly, industrial output (black), pollution (red), and food supply (blue) all peak at the ________ time and collapses (graph lines go down) at roughly the_____ time as in Scenario 2 for the same reasons. The larger industrial plant emits more pollution and use more resources. 

b. Given the present limits and technologies as seen in Scn 8, the world _______ sustain 7.4 billion people with an ever increasingly per person industrial output. 

EXPERIMENTS:  6.  All Controls Applied:

Scenario 10:  Stabilize Population; All Technologies from Scenario 6 and Moderate Industry and Lower Standard of Living; apply controls in 1995 with 20 year lag time.

QUES. 5:  What happens if all advanced technologies are applied, as well as, population control, and moderate standard of living?  Compare Scenarios 2 and 10.  (Fill in the blanks below.) 

a. The result of scenario 10 is what might happen in a sustainable world society. Population (green), food (blue), industrial output (black) graph lines are _______________ after about 2030. For the first time we see that a more restrained society is at a rough state of equilibrium. Capital does not have to go either toward further growth or to offset a spiraling set of problems. A population of just under 8 billion lives at a reasonable standard of living.  

b. In Scn 10, nonrenewable resources deplete _________ so that more than half are still present at 2100 conmpared to Scn 2. 

This is a picture of a SUSTAINABLE SOCIETY. The graph lines show _______ trends. Society is expending considerable effort to protect the land, reduce pollution, and use nonrenewable resources highly efficiently. 

EXPERIMENTS (II):  1.  Lag Time:

Scenario 7:  All advanced technologies from Scenario 6 with lag time of only 5 years instead of 20.

QUES. 6:  What if technologies are brought on faster with delay reduced from 20 years to five years?
  
Compare Scenario 6 and 7.

Discuss the results following the model answers from previous questions.

What if technologies are brought on faster with delay reduced from 20 years to five years?


EXPERIMENTS (II):  2.   Starting Time:

Scenario 11:  Stabilize Population; All Technologies from Scenario 6 and Moderate Industry and Lower Standard of Living; apply controls in 1975 with 20 year lag time.  

Scenario 12  Stabilize Population; All Technologies from Scenario 6 and Moderate Industry and Lower Standard of Living; apply controls in 2015 with 20 year lag time.  

Compare:   Scenario 11 - all controls in 1975
	         Scenario 10 - all controls in 1995
	         Scenario 12 - all controls in 2015

QUES. 7:  a.  Discuss and compare the results of these three scenarios.
b. What is the effect of the starting time on the implementation of all policies with a 20 year lag time?  

c. What happens if we wait too long to apply controls? 


EXPERIMENTS (III):  Standard of Living:

Scenario 13:     Stabilize Population; All Technologies from Scenario 6, but with Higher Goals (Standard of Living) for Food and Industry Output;  apply controls in 1995 with 20 year lag time. 
 
QUES. 8:  a. What happens if the standard of living is too high and requires excessive industrial output? 

b. Will the world be able to sustain a higher standard of living as in Scn 13? Explain.  

OVERALL QUESTION: 

QUES. 9:  Which worldview is supported by by the assumptions in this computer model of the world?  Explain.

QUES. 10:  Which worldview most closely corresponds to your own view point?  Explain how you view some of the issues such as the use of resources, population control, and the use of the nature.