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Charles E. Ophardt, Professor of Chemistry, Elmhurst College, Elmhurst, IL 60126, charleso at elmhurst.edu, Copyright 2004

TOPIC 1: INTRODUCTION TO ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES

 

For this topic, the on-line lecture discussion requirement is to do 3 questions:

First question from the Ques. 1-8 series. These questions are assigned as follows:

 Ques.  1  2  3  4  5  6  8
 Student
ID. No.
1, 11, 21, 28   2, 12, 22, 29  3, 13, 23, 10  4, 14, 24, 18, 30  5, 15, 25, 19  6, 16, 26, 20,. 9  7, 17, 27, 8


Second question from the 9-13 series assigned as follows:

 Ques.  9  10  11  12  13
 Student
ID. No.
10, 19, 28, 5, 14, 23  1, 20, 29, 6, 15, 24  2, 11, 30, 7, 16, 25 4, 13, 22, 8, 17, 26   3, 12, 21, 9, 18, 27


A third question may be from Ques 7 - Ecological Footprint, respond or comment to someone else, or use General Questions to ask a general question the Prof or others might answer.

Check answers already completed in
Blackboard - Discussion Pages

Write out answers to questions in a WORD PROCESSOR
and then copy and paste into
Blackboard

Requirements for the Lecture On-Line Discussion
Method to list references and citations.

Purpose: To look at the global picture of the interaction of people, resources, use of energy and consumer goods and the impacts on the environment. As the course progresses, we will look at individual components of what it takes to support each of us in our current life style and the impacts on the environment.


1. Introduction to Chemistry and Issues in the Environment
- Chapter 1, and p.38-47, 360-61, 483-486

 People need food, water, air, and nutrients to grow, to maintain their bodies, and to produce new people.  Machines(technology) need energy, water, and air plus an enormous variety of minerals, chemicals, and biological materials to produce goods and services, to maintain themselves, and make more machines.

A. Global Ecosystem

 Global Sources

Economic Subsystem
Population and Industrial Goods

 Global "Sinks" - where wastes end up
Solar energy & High grade energy resources - fossil fuels, nuclear Industrial Societies use high grade energy resources Low grade energy and heat loss - energy can not be recycled
Resources - Minerals, raw materials, plant materials, soils, water Industrial products, consumer goods, food supply Hazardous Wastes and Pollution - air, water, solids

B. Progression of Societies:

 Hunter/Gatherer - survived by gathering edible wild plants and by hunting wild animals, including seafood. Nomadic (move from place to place). Restricted to own muscle power. Small number of people worked with nature, little environmental impact.

Text - p. 486

 Early Agricultural - people learned how to breed and raise wild animals and cultivate crops near where they lived. In forest areas used slash and burn methods to clear land. Shifted to new area after a few years. Subsistence farming still used today in many tropical areas of the world. With few people not much impact on environment, with more people it begins to have a larger impact including deforestation.

 Advanced Agricultural - use domestic animals, tractors for energy, grow food for many more people, used irrigation, fertilizers, pesticides, large areas of single crops. Large impact on environment - more land cleared of forests, desertification, soil erosion, large amounts of water used, excess fertilizers and pesticides may cause water pollution.

Text - p. 493-4, 503

Urban - formation of towns and cities because a few people can grow enough food for many. Growth of other products for trade, accumulation of material wealth, increasing demand upon resources and consequent increasing impacts on environment.
 Industrial - Continue trends of urban society with application of huge increases of energy sources in the form of fossil fuels and large machines. In eastern Europe industrialization has been taken to extremes with little or no pollution controls.
U.S. - with 4.3 % population of world produces 21% of products using 33% of resources, using 25% of energy, and producing 33% of pollution. Each year each U.S. citizen uses 21 tons of energy and non-renewable mineral resources.

 Post Industrial ?? What does the future hold for society in the 21st century?

Next in this Topic 1, we will examine a computer generated model for some predictions of what might happen.


C. Definitions:
 
Science - is the knowledge gathered about the natural world through observations and controlled experimentation.
Chemistry - is the study of all matter and energy relationships.
Population - groups of individual organisms of the same species living within a particular area. Resources - anything obtained from the living or nonliving environment to meet human needs.
ProfO Notes: Types of Resources graphic
Resources - Series of slides
Technology - is the application of scientific knowledge in the creation of new products and processes. Pollution - an undesirable change in the physical, chemical, or biological characteristics of air, water, soil, or food that can adversely affect the health and survival of humans or other living organisms.
 Environment - all external conditions, living and nonliving (chemicals and energy) that can affect an organism.  Industrial Output: Continuous stream of products produced, which are actual factories and machines that produce manufactured products. Is produced by labor, energy, raw materials, land, water, natural ecosystems, technology, finance, and management.

QUES. 1: Contrast the relationship of science and technology. Select a simple consumer product for your discussion. For example, in looking at an aluminum soda pop can, what can you say about the aluminum can involving science and what is the technology? Continue with any considerations of use of resources? possible pollution?  Text p.2-3

2. Resources

A resource is any source of raw materials including fuels, minerals, water, soil, and plants. A natural resources is anything produced naturally that is needed by a group of organisms such as fresh air, water, food, and shelter. Humans depend upon other organisms for food to clean up water, to produce oxygen, and for hundreds of other functions. So one natural resource is the biodiversity of organisms on the earth which are interconnected, many are irreplaceable. Another irreplaceable natural resource is the sun - without energy from the sun, life on earth cannot exist. Natural Resources

Other resources are usually classified as renewable and nonrenewable. See ProfO Notes: Types of Resources graphic

Nonrenewable resources can be depleted in several ways. First, a resource such as a fossil fuel is "destroyed" when it is burned (is is really not destroyed, but changed into gases and ash). Second, a resource can be lost by being diluted or displaced to a location where it can not be easily recovered. For example when a helium balloon is burst, the helium escapes into the air and cannot be recovered. Third, a resources can be rendered useless by becoming too polluted as in polluted water is unfit for drinking.



 QUES. 2: Make a list of resources that you use in a single day. Categorize these resources as renewable or nonrenewable. Discuss one or more resources that are being depleted and that may be used up in the next 50 years. (Note: Not able to find a suitable site for nonrenewable resources)

Text - p. 37, 375

ProfO Notes: Types of Resources graphic

Resources - Series of slides

 

3. World Population Growth:



The exponential growth curve of world population is shown in the figure.

1700: The world population was about 0.5 billion and was growing at a rate of approximately 0.3 % per year (corresponds to a doubling time of 250 yr).
1970: The population totaled 3.6 billion and a rate of growth of 2.1 % per year (doubling time is 33 years).
1991: The population was 5.3 billion, rate of growth is 1.7 % (doubling time is 40 years), despite recent drops in birth rates in some countries.


Possible causes of exponential population growth:

Pre-industrial (1700): Both fertility and mortality were comparatively high and irregular. The birth rate exceeded the death rate only sightly, population grew exponentially, but at a very slow rate. The average life expectancy was 30 years. Modern (1970): Modern medicine, public health, and adequate food have led to an average life expectancy of 53 and still rising. Birth rates far exceed mortality rates, which results in a sharp exponential growth of the population.



Population Growth Scenarios :

Pre-industrialized: Such as many in Africa, have high mortality and even higher fertility - growth rate = 2-3%/yr. Intermediate Industrialization: Such as Egypt, Mexico, Thailand, have low mortality while fertility is still high but also decreasing - growth rate = 2-4%/yr. Highly Industrialized: North America, Europe, Japan, have low mortality, low fertility, and slow growth rates - less than 1% per year.


 QUES. 3: What are the current population trends in the industrial countries vs. the developing countries? What are the factors which contribute to slowing population growth?

Text - p. 483-486

Population Trends -

Population Data for 20 countries -

Population Growing by 80 million annually -

4. Food Supply

Food supply in every part of the Third World has increased greatly in the past twenty years. In most places it has doubled or tripled. But because of rapid population growth, food production per person has barely improved, and in Africa it has steadily declined. The increase in food supply was won at great cost to the earth, and that cost will make future increases more difficult. Cost to the earth includes more use of less desirable land, erosion, heavy use of fertilizers and pesticides.

"Grain vs. Meat. Meat consumption is going up worldwide, and that demands correspondingly higher per capita production of grain. It takes about 7 pounds of grain to yield 1 pound of beef. Poultry takes 2.7 pounds of grain to produce 1 pound of meat, while swine eat 6 pounds of grain for every pound of pork. In the U.S. and Canada, each person eats about a ton of grain annually, mostly as meat. People in Developing countries consume about 200 pounds of grain per capita each year. Between now and 2030, grain consumption, primarily as animal feed, is expected to grow by about 2.5% annually in the developing countries. Those millions of tons of grain represent, in turn, great quantities of expended natural resources -- from water for irrigation to the natural gas used to produce fertilizers. Then there is the associated environmental impact: rivers polluted with pesticides and nitrates, exhausted aquifers, and eroded soil. Unfortunately, the quantity of arable land is all too finite. "
October 1999 Population Action International

QUES 4: Use the text and the links at right to discuss some of the following: The chemical reactions, nutrients, and energy to grow food; contrast simple agriculture vs. modern agriculture; some of the world food supply trends i.e. will the world be able to supply food to everyone in 25-50 years?

Text - p. 502-3

World Food Supply

Grain Harvest Trends Falling

World Protein shift from grain to more protein

5. Population versus Resource Consumption

 Overpopulation and Increasing use of resources => pollution => environmental degradation

 NOTES: Population vs. Resources
A simple model equation to understand the human impact on the environment is:
(number of people) X (number of resources used per person) X (Pollution per resource unit used) = Overall Environmental Impact.

ProfO Notes: Environmental Impact Graphic Illustration

Over Consumption, Unsustainable Consumption - Overpopulation.org; scan through a number of things, pay closer attention about half wasy through starting with "Unsustainable Consumption" - U.S. babies, hamberger.

 Two scenarios are possible, both with about equal overall environmental impact:
 Scenario 1: People overpopulation (usually in the developing and underdeveloped countries): Excess people may use only small amounts of resources but the multiplication effect still results in significant environmental degradation (deforestation, land erosion, water pollution).
 Scenario 2: Excessive use of resources (by a relatively small number of people):
In the U.S. a small number of people use a great quantity of resources which when multiplied by the pollution results in a significant environmental impact. However, pollution control laws have begun to have an effect in slowing and reversing the rate of environmental degradation. In Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union, the environmental impacts and degradation are readily apparent because of ineffective pollution control laws.

 QUES. 5: Use one of the links on the right to choose a topic. Discuss a specific local, national, or world problem involved with over consumption. Is this problem a result of the "people overpopulation" vs. excessive use or abuse of resources by a few people?  Sustainability vs. Over consumption - This is a very huge paper so pick a topic and write about it.

6. Industrial Output Growth vs. Pollution:

 A second quantity that has been increasing in the world even faster than population is industrial output. The average growth rate from 1963-1968 was 7 % per year or 5 % per year per person.
The 1970-1990 growth rate in total production has averaged 3.3 % per year or 1.5 % per year per person. If population had held constant, output per person doubles, but because of population growth, output per person grew by only one third.

Question: Is it possible to continue to produce vast amounts of industrial output without running out of resources and without causing significant harm to the environment as in pollution??

 Industrial Output: ================>>>>>

Continuous stream of products produced by industrial capital, which are actual factories and machines that produce manufactured products. Industrial capital is itself produced by labor, energy, raw materials, land, water, natural ecosystems, technology, finance, and management.

========>> PRODUCE==============>>>>

a. Consumer goods - cars, clothing, houses
b. Resource obtaining - drills, mining equipment, pipelines, tankers, etc.
c. Agricultural capital- tractors, barns, harvesters, which produce agricultural output, mainly food.
d. Service capital - hospitals, banks, stores, which produce health care, education, etc.
e. Industrial investment -more factories, machines to increase the stock of industrial capital.



Wide spread Pollution is the result of the:

Tragedy of Freedom in the Commons

 ProfO Notes: Short adaptation/summary.

Tragedy of the Commons, contains many links and examples.

Tragedy of the Commons - original paper by Garrett Hardin

 QUES. 6: Discuss a specific local, national, or world condition or problem that is a result of the Tragedy of the Commons? Either think of your own examples or find one in the link on the right.  Tragedy of the Commons, contains many links and examples.

 Ecological Footprint:

"The concept of an "ecological footprint" turns out to be an almost intuitive measure of the impact of individuals or societies on nature. It provides a simple yet elegant accounting tool that can help us see the impact of human consumption patterns on the earth. What we do about this information, of course, is the essence of a much larger policy debate. " from "Ecological Footprints. Differ in Great Measure From the `Haves' to the `Have-nots' " by David Schaller, Salt Lake City Tribune

QUES. 7: What is your ecological footprint? How much do you impact the environment? What is your ecological footprint? To find out use one or more of the calculators provided in the link on the right. Do you have any comments after doing this exercise?  Ecological Footprint

8. World Views


 A. Cornucopian

People in affluent societies usually have cornucopian or throwaway world view which is based on the ideas that there will always be MORE. The earth has unlimited resources, or if they become scarce, a substitute will be found by advanced technology. The earth has an unlimited capacity to absorb pollution or technological advances will be found to clean up or control pollution. Continued economic growth and technological advances will produce a less crowded, less polluted, and more resource rich world.
 B. Sustainable Earth Views

People with the sustainable-earth view believe that the earth does not have limitless resources. An ever-increasing exponential production and consumption of resources will put a severe stress on the natural processes that renew and maintain air, water, and soil for renewable plant and animal life. If present trends continue, the world will become more crowded, more polluted, and nonrenewable resources will be depleted or severely degraded. Society as we know it may collapse.
Cornucopian viewpoints:

1. We are apart from nature and superior.
2. Conquer and subdue wild nature for our purposes.
3. Resources are unlimited because of our ingenuity to make them available or find substitutes - there is always more.
4. The more we produce and consume, the better off we are. Unlimited material progress can be achieved through economic and technological growth - all growth is good.
5. Population will be naturally limited when an industrial society is reached.
Sustainable-Earth viewpoints:

1. Control population growth.
2. Achieve sustainable use of crop land, forests, grasslands, animals, and fish.
3. Increase use of renewable energy such as solar, wind, geothermal, biomass.
4. Decrease use rate and waste in nonrenewable mineral, fossil fuel, and nuclear resources.
5. Emphasize pollution prevention and more environmentally benign technology.
6. Protect biodiversity and remaining wilderness areas.

 QUES. 8: At the present time, which world view most closely matches your own world view or philosophy? It will be interesting to see whether this view changes as a result of taking this course.

World Views - several links give a synopsis of both sides - Club of Rome and Julian Simon -Cornucopian

Julian Simon's Bet with Paul Ehrlich

9. Global Computer Model - The Club of Rome

A global computer model helps to show what might happen in the next one hundred years depending upon actions taken or not taken in the near future.

A. Introduction to the Global Computer Model:

The Club of Rome was formed in 1968 when a group of 30 individuals from 10 countries met in Rome to discuss the present and future predicament of humankind. The group has since expanded to 70 from 25 countries. Its purpose was to foster the understanding of the varied but interdependent components - economic, political, natural, and social - that make up the global system. Phase One of the study was conducted by an international team, under Dr. Dennis Meadows and Dr. J. Forrester at MIT.

A global computer model was constructed to investigate five major trends of global concern:
1. Population - Rapid population growth.
2. Food Supply - Widespread malnutrition.
3. Industrial Output - Accelerating industrialization.
4. Pollution - Deteriorating environment.
5. Supply of Non-Renewable Resources - Depletion of nonrenewable resources.

These trends are all interconnected in many ways, and their development is measured in decades or centuries. The model is used to understand the causes of these trends, their interrelationships, and their implications as much as one hundred years into the future.

All five elements in the model - population, food supply, industrial output, pollution, and supply of nonrenewable natural resources are all increasing or decreasing following a pattern that mathematicians call Exponential Growth . Nearly all of mankind's current activities can be represented by exponential growth curves.

This course will concentrate mainly on the chemistry of the resources, industrial output, and pollution, with a small amount of attention on food supply.

How to Read World3 Scenarios

This program contains several computer runs or "scenarios" generated by the World3 Model. Each run starts with the same basic model structure and changes some of the variables to test different estimates of "real world" parameters.

Some scenarios incorporate more optimistic projections of developing technologies, others project what may happen if the world chooses new policies or goals.

The computer model calculates the interactions among 225 variables for every 6 months in a simulated time starting with the year 1900 to 2100. The model produces 90,000 numbers for every scenario run. Several types of graphs are produced to show correlations among some of the variables. The scales for the variables (constant in all scenarios) have different absolute values, but for comparison simplicity, the numbers are normalized to fit on a single scale.

To make sense of all of this data, the model generates various types of graphs.
For simplicity this program will show the results of only one of them. The State of the World shows global totals for: population, food supply, industrial output, pollution, and remaining nonrenewable resources.


B. Scenario 1: Standard Run

The world society proceeds along its historical path as long as possible without major policy changes. This is the "reference run ". Technology in agriculture, industry, and social services advances according to current established exponential growth patterns.
 The left hand axis has different values for the units being plotted. The actual numbers are not important, but will be relative for all of the scenarios. The five properties are all scaled to fit on one graph.



1 = Green = Population: increases to 6 billion by 2000. The simulated world tries to bring all people into the industrial and post-industrial economy. Reaches a maximum about 2030 and begins to decline - probably because the food supply started to decrease 10-20 years earlier.
2 = Blue = Food Supply: The agricultural sector grows and begins to increase food per person, but begins to decrease sharply at 2015.
3 = Black = Industrial output: Grows until a combination of environmental (pollution = 4= red) and natural resource (5 = purple) constraints eliminate the capacity of the capital sector to sustain investment.
4 = Red = Pollution: Steadily increases as industrial output increases (3 = black) and...
5 = Purple = Nonrenewable resources: begins to decline more sharply after 2000. Eventually the lack of resources causes the industrial output (3 = black) to decrease.


In this Scenario 1, no extraordinary efforts are made to abate pollution or conserve resources. Both begin to increase rapidly.

 ...THE LIMITS TO GROWTH ARE REACHED...
when the graphs reach a peak or a maximum.
The world society will will collapse as the graph lines decrease.

A stable sustainable society is reached if the graph lines become and remain more or less horizontal.

The objective of this exercise is to find a scenario where the graph lines become and remain horizontal.



Further explanation about Scenario 1:

Industrial capital begins to depreciate faster than new investment can rebuild it.
As it falls, food and health services also fall, decreasing life expectancy and raising the death rate.

In this scenario, shortly after 2010 the growth of the economy stops and reverses because of a combination of LIMITS.
1. Pollution rises high enough to effect land fertility.
2. Land erosion increases.
3. Economy shifts to more investment in agriculture.
4. Resource sector also beginning to sense limits and requires more investment.
5. Capital is diverted to producing more food and resources.
6. Less capital for other growth, cannot keep up with depreciation.
7. Capital plant begins to decline taking with it the food and service sectors.
8. For a short time population continues to rise.
9. Finally, increasing death rate, caused by lack of food and health services, causes population decline.

Examination of Scenarios from the Global Computer Model

 These exercises are not designed to be very hard. We are just looking for general trends in the graphs and changes in the graphs from one scenario to the next. To complete this exercise you will be applying elements of the scientific method. One scenario will serve as a "control", while the second scenario will have a change of one or more variables. By comparing the two or more scenarios, you will be able to draw conclusions about the cause and effect relationships of the variable changes to answer the question.
 NOTE: The first question (immediately below) has been answered for you as an example. You should compare each of the five factors that are plotted from the "control scenario 2" to the new scenario. Look for comparisons such as increase, decrease, rise rapidly, stay constant, give an approximate years for significant changes, etc. A change in the general trend from increasing to a sudden decrease or collapse is undesirable as the world will be experiencing mass chaos, starvation, death, and fighting over scarce food and other resources. If the graph trend lines level out and remain stable, then the world will be at a rough equilibrium.

C. Scenario 2: Doubled Resources - The number of estimated natural resources is doubled from the current "best" estimate.

 Text - p. 37, 375

 ProfO Notes: Types of Resources graphic
Resources - Series of slides

Estimation of Natural Resources -


Since the amount of nonrenewable resources still to be discovered are simply unknown, the model can be used to test this range of uncertainty. In this scenario it is assumed that there are twice as many resources waiting to be discovered than were assumed in Scenario 1. This Scenario 2 will test the Cornucopian view that resources are unlimited.

Example QUES. & Answer : What if more resources are actually available than current estimates predict?
 Compare Scenarios 1 and 2. Scenario 1 Graph
Scenario 2 Graph
Compare Scenarios 1 and 2 all on one graph.


a. When comparing Scenarios 1 and 2, the resources (purple) last considerably longer, but the general behavior of the model is still overshoot and collapse, just delayed by 30-40 years.

b. Additional resources allow industry (black) to grow 30-40 years longer in Scn 2 than Scn 1, which in turn causes pollution (red) to be 2.5-3 times higher and peak 30 years later.

c. The greater pollution has a greater impact on the food supply (blue), causing it to last only a few years longer at the same level and then declines slightly more sharply than in Scn 1. The higher pollution reduces land yield and forces much greater investment in agriculture. Eventually declining food raises the death rate to decrease the population.

d. In Scn 2, population (green) rises to more than 9 billion in 2040, which is just a small amount higher and begins to decline about 20 years later, but declines also more sharply than in Scn 1.

 

D. World Population Growth:

 Text - p. 483-85

Population Trends -

Population Data for 20 countries -

Population Growing by 80 million annually -



Population Growth Scenarios :

Pre-industrialized: Such as many in Africa, have high mortality and even higher fertility - growth rate = 2-3%/yr. Intermediate Industrialization: Such as Egypt, Mexico, Thailand, have low mortality while fertility is still high but also decreasing - growth rate = 2-4%/yr. Highly Industrialized: North America, Europe, Japan, have low mortality, low fertility, and slow growth rates - less than 1% per year.


Implication: Industrial growth causes transition to lower population growth rate.

Question: Can increased industrialization led to a stable population with enough resources to support this population???? Scenario 8 is provided to perhaps give an answer.

Scenario 8: Stabilize World Population at 2 children per family in 1995.

Examination of Scenarios from the Global Computer Model

Suppose that, starting in 1995, all couples in the world understood the implication of further population growth for the welfare of their own children. All couples decide to limit their family size to two children on the average. All available fertility control technologies are readily available to achieve the desired family size.

QUES. 9: What happens if the population is controlled and no other things are changed? Consult the previous Example Ques and Answer.

 Compare Scenario 2 and 8 Scenario 2 Graph
Scenario 8 Graph
Compare Scenarios 2 and 8 all on one graph.


As a result the world population (green) continues to .....

Also compare the other four trends lines on the graph.

 

E. Industrial Output Growth vs. Pollution:

 A second quantity that has been increasing in the world even faster than population is industrial output. The average growth rate from 1963-1968 was 7 % per year or 5 % per year per person.
The 1970-1990 growth rate in total production has averaged 3.3 % per year or 1.5 % per year per person. If population had held constant, output per person doubles, but because of population growth, output per person grew by only one third.

Question: Is it possible to continue to produce vast amounts of industrial output without running out of resources and without causing significant harm to the environment as in pollution??

 Industrial Output: Continuous stream of products produced by industrial capital, which are actual factories and machines that produce manufactured products. Industrial capital is itself produced by labor, energy, raw materials, land, water, natural ecosystems, technology, finance, and management.

========>> PRODUCE==============>>>>
a. Consumer goods - cars, clothing, houses
b. Resource obtaining - drills, mining equipment, pipelines, tankers, etc.
c. Agricultural capital- tractors, barns, harvesters, which produce agricultural output, mainly food.
d. Service capital - hospitals, banks, stores, which produce health care, education, etc.
e. Industrial investment -more factories, machines to increase the stock of industrial capital.

Scenario 3: Doubled Resources and Pollution Control Technology
Allocate capital to bring pollution to 1975 levels. 20 year lag time.

In scenario 2, growth was ended by a pollution crisis. What if the simulated world responded by making a determined investment in pollution control technology?

In scenario 3, and all further runs, we assume double resources and apply one variable change at a time.

In scenario 3, we have assumed that in 1995, long before pollution rises high enough to cause measurable damage, the world decides to bring pollution down to 1975 levels and systematically allocates capital to achieve that goal.

Pollution control technology is applied at the "end of the pipe" approach to control emissions, rather than reducing throughput at the source. It reduces pollution emitted by up to 3% per year until brought down to 1975 level. It is also assumed that it takes 20 years for any new pollution abatement technology to be developed and installed worldwide.

 QUES. 10: What is the effect of applying all pollution control technologies? Consult the previous Example Ques and Answer
 Compare Scenarios 2 and 3 Scenario 2 Graph
Scenario 3 Graph
Compare Scenarios 2 and 3 all on one graph.


As a result the world pollution (red) .....

Also compare the other four trends lines on the graph.

F. Food Supply

 Food supply in every part of the Third World has increased greatly in the past twenty years. In most places it has doubled or tripled. But because of rapid population growth, food production per person has barely improved, and in Africa it has steadily declined. The increase in food supply was won at great cost to the earth, and that cost will make future increases more difficult. Cost to the earth includes more use of less desirable land, erosion, heavy use of fertilizers and pesticides.

 Text - p. 502-3

World Food Supply

Grain Harvest Trends Falling

World Protein shift from grain to more protein

Scenario 6: Double Resources, Pollution Control Technologies, Land Yield and Erosion Control Technologies, and Resource Efficiency Technology, but NOT controlling the population.

In this scenario, double resources are assumed, as well as a variety of advanced technologies including pollution control already described.
Land yield technologies are applied in 1995, well in advance of a global food crisis, new technologies such as genetics, more fertilizer, and pesticides are applied. Capital inputs are needed to achieve a 2%/year increase in land yields. This implies a 7 times increase in 100 years!! The model tries to reduce land erosion by a factor of 3.
A final program of resource efficiency technology is instituted to reduce the amount of nonrenewable resources needed per unit of industrial output by 3 % per year until total resource consumption decreases to the approximate 1975 level.

 QUES. 11: What is the effect of applying all advanced technologies possible? Consult the previous Example Ques and Answer

Compare Scenarios 2 and 6. Scenario 2 Graph
Scenario 6 Graph
Compare Scenarios 2 and 6 all on one graph.


Be careful on your interpretation of this one, as the trend lines may be at the verge of peaking out, but have run out of time in the model calculation. Perhaps look at Scenario 10 next also as a comparison before you answer this one.

As a result the world food supply (blue) .....

Also compare the other four trends lines on the graph.


G. Sustainable Society:

Scenario 10: Stabilize Population; All Technologies from Scenario 6 and Moderate Industry and Lower Standard of Living; apply controls in 1995 with 20 year lag time.

In Scenario 10, population growth and all of the control technologies: pollution, land yield, erosion control, and conservation of resources - all developed in Scn 6 are applied together. In addition a new goal is for a more simple but adequate material standard of living. The mind set is changed from pursuing an ever-accumulating material wealth. The world has decided to aim for an average consumer goods per person of the 1968 level of $350 per year. This is equivalent to South Korea or twice the level of Brazil in 1990.
Definition of Sustainablility

 QUES. 12: What happens if all advanced technologies are applied, as well as, population control, and moderate standard of living? Consult the previous Example Ques and Answer

 Compare Scenarios 2 and 10. Scenario 2 Graph
Scenario 10 Graph
Compare Scenarios 2 and 10 all on one graph.



This is a picture of a SUSTAINABLE SOCIETY. Describe the differences in the all five of the graph trend lines in Scenario 10 compared to Scenario 2.

 

H. Standard of Living:

Is is possible for the rest of the world to be brought up to the standard of living as we presently know it in the industrialized countries? The people consume large amounts of resources per person as compared to the current underdeveloped countries. Is this sustainable according to these computer models?

Scenario 13: Stabilize Population; All Technologies from Scenario 6, but with Higher Goals (Standard of Living) for Food and Industry Output; apply controls in 1995 with 20 year lag time.

What happens if the model society aims too high in the goals for standard of living? This scenario is directly comparable to scenario 10. The difference is the goal for food per person is set 50 % higher and the goal for consumer goods per person is set at about 3.5 times the 1990 world average.

 QUES. 13: a. What happens if the standard of living is too high and requires excessive industrial output?
b. Will the world be able to sustain a higher standard of living as in Scn 13? Explain. Consult the previous Example Ques and Answer

 Compare Scenarios 6, 10, and 13. Scenario 10 Graph
Scenario 13 Graph
Compare Scenarios 6, 10, and 13 all on one graph.


Discuss the results.

With this introduction, it is hoped that as we focus on the chemistry and environmental issues of our use of resources and energy, you will become more aware of the what you use, where it comes form, and the consequences to the environment.